Many football handicappers will say that the real truth in examining games is in the details. Anyone who expects to be successful had better learn to read between the lines to determine how or why teams are winning and losing both straight up and against the spread.
One handicapper may say that turnovers are the most important stat. Others may emphasize the importance of home field, while still others may find individual and team match-ups as their handicapping bread and butter. These are certainly important points, but one factor usually doesn’t tell the whole story. It’s important to expand your thinking when analyzing games.
Any bettor who wants to take advantage of edges will have to learn to read between the lines to determine why teams are successful straight up and against the number. The keys to winning and losing are in the details, and one must know what to look for. For example, in college football’s opening week, Texas Tech trailed Texas State 10-9 at the half.
How did that happen? Well you’d have to look at the final stats, because the Red Raiders ended up winning the game 50-10, getting serious in the second half. What happened was it was Game 1, so it took a while for the offense to get in synch, which they did, ending up with 505 yards (348 passing). The next week Texas Tech was a 21 point favorite over New Mexico and rolled, 59-13, with 624 yards. There was no slow start, leading 38-7 at the half, so there was no reason to panic about their offense.
Sometimes the final score can be misleading. A few years ago that same Texas Tech team opened the year by squeaking by SMU 27-13 as a 25-point favorite. The dog got the cover, but did SMU earn that cover by playing improved defense from the year before? Not really. Texas Tech had 530 total yards, including a whopping 481 passing yards and SMU turned the ball over three times. Texas Tech averaged 475 yards passing and 42 points the previous season, so the stats suggest they should have scored 42 against SMU, which would have given T-Tech the cover in a 42-13 game (they beat SMU 58-10 the previous season).
Instead, the Texas Tech kicker missed a field goal and an extra point attempt early in the game, so the Red Raider coach benched his kicker and decided to go for it on every fourth down inside the SMU 40 (7 times). Looking at the score suggests an improved SMU defense and a stumbling Texas Tech offense working in a new QB. Examining the stats and finding out the reasons why things took place paints a different picture, which is essential from a handicapping perspective.
Other factors, too, can influence a team’s performance from week to week or even season to season, such as injuries, weather and coaching changes. NC State had a tough September, losing to Wake Forest and Cincinnati, giving up 34 and 44 points. The main reason for this was a slew of defensive injuries that gutted their talent and depth. LB Terrel Manning, the Wolfpack’s starting weakside linebacker, had surgery on his left knee and is out. Manning, who had five sacks last year, joins defensive tackles J.R. Sweezy and Thomas Teal (both out with a fractured foot). Cornerback Jarvis Byrd (knee) and reserve linebacker Sterling Lucas (knee) are also out for the season.
The Wolfpack’s already depleted defensive line took another hit in the 44-14 loss to Cincy when tackle Brian Slay hurt his right ankle early and had to be helped off the field. Reserve tackle A.J. Ferguson also had to leave the game with an injured right knee. NC State has a good offense and an excellent coaching staff under Tom O’Brien, who has a great track record. In fact, the Wolfpack is 18-8-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, but the defensive injuries have cut deep this fall.
Personal can change from season to season, too. Nevada had a great running offense last season, but star QB, Colin Kaepernick, is gone, and they’re turning to a freshman this season. Texas had a poor offense in 2010, but is getting better play from new QB, Case McCoy, the brother of Colt McCoy, now in the NFL. This makes comparing stats and match-ups with respect to sides and totals on teams very different from last season.
Emotion, as well, can be significant, especially in college football, where coaches are more likely to give fiery speeches to their young players than in the pros. Many college teams have games circled on their schedule, looking to avenge an embarrassing defeat from last fall. We saw this last month when Texas beat UCLA, 49-20, as a three-point favorite. One year ago UCLA humiliated the Longhorns in Texas, 34-12 as a +16 underdog. Payback, as they say, can be tough and is often a huge factor.
So remember, sometimes stats can lie. Stats are a good starting point, but successful handicappers dig deep and weigh many pieces of information. Expanding your thinking helps you get better in life — and at the wagering window.
