Stats are a great starting point when analyzing point spreads and upcoming matchups. But a smart handicapper knows that stats aren’t the whole story. In fact, they can sometimes be misleading and even lie. It’s important to understand this, especially as the college football bowl games and pro playoffs approach.
One obvious example is weather. Teams that rely almost solely on the passing game, for example, can look like world beaters in September and October, but be at a serious disadvantage late in the season. This is going to be something to watch closely with the defending champion Green Bay Packers. The Pack doesn’t have a strong running game with the air attack behind QB Aaron Rodgers carrying the offense. But what an offense! Still, teams that rely so much on the passing attack can get tripped up—not by some opposing defense—but by cold, windy weather. That’s something that didn’t hinder the Packers in January during the playoffs. They had two outdoor games in Philadelphia and Chicago, winning both, though the offense had just 21 points in each game. But that’s certainly something to keep a close eye on.
The San Diego Chargers of the late 1970s/early 1980s are a great example. The Chargers were a sensational passing team with QB Dan Fouts, and WRs Charlie Joiner and John Jefferson. They excelled in Coach Don Coryell’s wide-open air game to win several AFC West championships. The public loves high-scoring teams and often back explosive offenses, especially in the playoffs.
But those Chargers had several weaknesses: a poor defense and an offense that was too one-dimensional. Those San Diego teams never made the Super Bowl and were shut down with ease in the playoffs when they had to play cold-weather games in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. In recent years we’ve witnessed teams from Florida–the Dolphins and Buccaneers–struggle badly in January.
Another factor, more prevalent in college this time of year, is contented teams. That is, there are some teams that are pumped up to participate in a bowl game and other teams that are just happy to be there.
When these teams face each other, the results can be one-sided. A year ago in the first bowl, Texas El-Paso took on BYU in the New Mexico Bowl. UTEP had clinched a bowl in Week 10 at home, then was in cruise control the next three games, losing all three giving up 58, 31 and 52 points (1-2 against the Vegas number). Their opponent in the bowl, BYU, had a very different run to get to a bowl, overcoming a 1-4 start. They finished on a 6-2 straight up/7-1 spread run playing motivated football in every contest.
A few years ago, Northwestern and its high-powered offense carried an 8-3 SU/ATS mark into the Alamo Bowl. It was a surprising season for the Wildcats and they were happy to be in a bowl and Northwestern was a +14 dog against Nebraska. The 9-2 Huskers were used to playing in bowls every year and had little sympathy for the upstart Wildcats. Nebraska rolled, 66-17.
When Lou Holtz turned South Carolina into a surprising bowl team, the Gamecocks were highly motivated to make it to a bowl under the master motivator. Their opponent was Ohio State, a 5-point favorite. It was correct to make Ohio State the favorite, as statistically the Buckeyes were the superior team, but Ohio State was off a disappointing campaign and laid an egg at home against rival Michigan, losing 38-26 as a favorite. The sad-eyed Buckeyes were more interested in getting the season over with, while South Carolina was on a mission. The Gamecocks played with fire and dominated in a 24-7 victory as a +5 dog.
The NFL features teams focused on division titles and fighting for limited Wild Card slots, plus a slew of teams that have long been out of the race in losing seasons. How much interest in playing hard do you think stumbling teams like the Colts, Redskins, Panthers, Vikings, Rams and Browns have? How much fun do you think it is for many of those players to show up for work and practice hard each week, when expectations were so much higher?
So, make sure you carefully compile statistics and power ratings, but don’t ignore other, subtler, aspects of the handicapping world. Late in the football season, weather and motivation can be even more important as some teams want to be playing in December and January, while some players are more focused on golfing and staying healthy.
Jim Feist has been the recognized leader for decades in the sports information and gaming industries. His endeavors include websites, providing sports information worldwide, poker tournaments, and being the principal panelist on PRO LINE, America’s premier handicapping television/web show. Jim has served as a professional consultant to the New York State Lottery and appeared on television programs ranging from ESPN’s “Inside Football” and “Sports Center” to CNN’s esteemed “Crossfire.” In the 2005 World Series of Poker he finished 426 out of 5,600 participants and finished second in the 2010 Bookmaker.com basketball handicapping contest. Success is in the details and Jim Feist measures success not by the sports season, but by the decade.
